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Southern Hemisphere Season 2005 Discussion Archive

26 February 2005 - 02:00 UTC

Explosive Southern Pacific

Anyone who thought the 2005 Southern Pacific Cyclone Season was going to be capped off by Nancy and Olaf must have been surprised to see Tropical Cyclone Percy form....unless they were monitoring Independent Weather the last seven days. As of the 18Z warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Tropical Cyclone Percy has sustained winds of 90 knots. The latest Dvorak Technique estimates from 19Z are T5.0/5.0, (90 knots) respectively. A 20Z SSMI/85GHzH pass depicts further strengthening over the last two hours. The inner core is becoming more concentrated, and the eye is beginning to tighten. The pinhole eye is no longer visible on infrared imagery at this time. The next advisory will likely indicate that Percy has intensified with winds at or near 100 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Percy is in an environment that is condusive for further intensification. Upper level winds are light and sea surface temperatures exceed 30ºC, which is more than warm enough. The JTWC is forecasting Percy to peak with sustained winds of 135 knots (Near Olaf's intensity) on the 27th at 06Z. By the 28th, Percy will be heading towards the mid-latitudes where upper level winds, and sea surface temperatures are not as favorable. By the time the cyclone reaches 20ºS winds will likely diminish to less than 100 knots. However, 90-100 knots is still a very strong cyclone. Therefore, Rarotonga and Niue should be monitoring Percy.

The JTWC's 3-Day Forecast Track projects Percy barely passing Osolega on the 28th. Furthermore, all of Western and American Samoa are well within the JTWC's margin of error. With that begin said, Tutuila and Osolega are far from being out of the woods. The 18Z model runs of the NOGAPS and GFS just came out, and they are still persistent on a southerly curve, but coming after the inner core passes to the east of American Samoa. The offical warning centers are heavily reliant on these model runs. However, these models are far from being 100% accurate, and the potential for error is always high. The main steering parameters are a mid level ridge well to the east, and a mid level trough to the southeast of the islands. Percy will begin to turn southeast once it begins to interact with the weakness (trough) in the atmosphere. There is always the potential that the southerly turn could happen earlier than expected. This is a common occurrence when dealing with intense cyclones, which are prone to being pulled towards the poles sooner than weak cyclones. Residents of American Samoa should be ready to ride out an intense cyclone due to the fact that the islands are still in the margin of error, and that landfall would occur within the next 48-72 hours.

Final preparations for Percy in Atafu, Nukunono, Fakaofo, Swain Island, and Tokelau Island should be coming to an end. Weather conditions are likely deteriorating already as the center closes in. It is unlikely that the inner core will directly impact these islands, but it cannot be ruled out. Please listen to official advisories from the local weather agencies for more information.

Percy is currently expected to pass directly between Rarotonga and Niue within 3-5 days, but the final outcome is far from certain. These islands should be monitoring Percy just as much as American Samoa.

99P INVEST has formed just west of Tropical Cyclone Percy. None of the available global model guidance is forecasting development, and the outflow from intensifying Percy will likely dismantle the disturbance. Further organization is not expected.

The next significant threat is developing in the Coral Sea. NRL Monterey has not issued an INVEST yet, but I am sure that the organizaing mass of convection northwest of New Caledonia will recieve recognition by the agency soon enough. The developing broad area of low pressure is located in a marginal upper level enviroment at this time, but an upper level ridge is expected to develop an allow for ventilation. The low could begin to develop quickly starting in just a few days. Initial guidance suggests that the developing cyclone will pass through the Vanuatu island chain during the middle range. People in this area should have a keen eye on the Coral Sea over the next five days.

97S INVEST, located in the southcentral Indian Ocean, is showing some signs of organization. There is some potential for 97S to become a classified cyclone over the next 2-3 days. Fortunately, 97S is not expected to be a threat to any landmasses.

10 February 2005 - 09:15 UTC

An SSMI pass at 4:30 UTC unveiled the makings of a weak low level circulation a couple degress north of Samoa. The latest infrared animation is also hinting at an increase in low level convergence for the first time. Tropical Cyclogenesis is occurring in the exact location global model guidance progged 48 hours ago. A Tropical Cyclone will form near or possibly even over the island of Samoa within the next 36-48 hours. The local National Weather Service office in Samoa has already issued a High Surf Advisory due to increasing swells, which are expected to rise to 6-8 feet over the next several days. The islands should anticipate heavy rains that could cause minor street flooding in flood prone areas, and sustained winds around 70-80 km/h. The cyclone will likely be a very slow moving storm due to the lack of steering winds. The gradually strengthening cyclone will continue heading generally southward once it passes Samoa. Tonga has a decent shot at also being impacted. The storm will be in the general location between Tonga and Samoa over the next 120 hours.

09 February 2005 - 08:15 UTC

The 00Z runs of the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GFS all support the call for tropical cyclone development just west of Samoa. The low progged to develop into a tropical cyclone is currently located near 175ºW 08ºS. Latest infrared imagery reveals a slowly organizing cloudmass in this area. The global models show the low slowly drifting southward until it begins to deepen between Samoa and Fiji. Upper level winds are favorable for development so there should not be any surprises when deepening does occur. An upper level ridge over the Coral Sea will move eastward, and the low level disturbance will situate itself underneath the high. A weak surface low should develop within 36-60 hours, with the possibility of having a tropical cyclone on our hands by 72-96 hours. The main steering parameter will be a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. The cyclone will move west-southwestward toward either New Caledonia or Vanuatu.

92S INVEST is still being monitored, but there are no signs of development at this time.

06 February 2005 - 03:00 UTC

Severe Tropical Cyclone Meena (15P) is bearing down on the island of Rarotonga, located in the southern Pacific Ocean. Currently, maximum sustained winds are 115 knots, and they are expected to increase to near 140 knots at closest approach to the island. Upper level conditions are ideal for further development, and Meena will likely rank among one of the strongest tropical cyclones of the 2005 Cyclone Season.

Tropical Cyclone Harvey (16P) has just been classified by the Burea of Meteorology. Harvey is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and is expected to slowly move inland near Burketown within the next few days.

02 February 2005 - 02:15 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Lola (98P) is dissipating in the southern Pacific, and is no threat to land.

97S. INVEST is forecast to remain below depression strength through the medium range.

31 January 2005 - 23:30 UTC

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by the JTWC for 95S. INVEST has been cancelled. 95S. has not shown any signs of organization and upper level winds are marginal for development at best. Therefore, tropical development is not forecast.

Tropical Depression Felapi was upgraded by La Reunion after Scatterometer Wind Imagery and Infrared imagery indicated that the surface circulation was strengthening. However, the relatively small tropical cyclone has weakened due to moderate upper level winds. Felapi is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days without posing a significant threat to land.

96P. INVEST has been upgraded and named Tropical Cyclone Lola by the Fiji Meteorological Service. Lola is very weak, and is moving away from land. Lola is forecast to weaken over the open waters of the south Pacific over the next 48 hours.

Special Ex-Felapi Update 30 January 2005 - 22:45 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Felapi was first forecast to begin turn west once near the west coast of Madagascar. But it turned out that Felapi crossed southern Madagascar and was heading towards the pole due to a weakness in the atmosphere. Felapi was then written off since it appeared to be becoming nontropical in nature. Astonishingly, today's satellite imagery shows that the upper level trough left the remnants of Felapi behind, and the remnants are now moving northward up the eastern coast of Madagascar. The last three infrared images also show that the surface circulation is becoming more compact. In addition, latest Scatterometeter Wind Data shows that isolated squalls contain surface winds up to 40 knots. Thunderstorms closest to the surface circulation must be packing winds of at least 25-30 knots. What is even more astonishing is that neither the JTWC nor La Reunion is mentioning this system. In fact, NRL doesn't even have the low classified as an INVEST.

The low is not being picked up by the NOGAPS, ECMWF, or GFS. With that being said, I was surprised to see that the UKMET model is not only initializing the low at the proper coordinates, but it is also forecasting intensification. Residents along the eastern coast of Madagascar should stay tuned to official sources for more information.

30 January 2005 - 19:30 UTC

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 95S. INVEST, which is located northeast of the Mauritius. Satellite imagery reveals that convection is developing closer to the low level circulation. There is a good chance that 95S will slowly develop into a minimal tropical cyclone as it begins to approach the Mauritius over the next few days.

96P. INVEST, located near Fiji, has formed within the last 24 hours. 96P is forecast to slowly move in a southerly direction away from land over the next 48 hours. The potential for development is relatively low at this time.

93W. INVEST, located in the western Pacific, has not shown signs of organization, and development is not forecast.

29 January 2005 - 00:30 UTC

Tropical Storm Felapi has made landfall in southern Madagascar. Yesterday's model runs were in strong agreement on a turn back into the Mozambique Channel. La Reunion, which fortunately upgraded the TC prior to landfall (unlike the JTWC) even jumped onboard with the model consensus. The scenario made a lot of sense, but climatlogy won again. The remnants of Felapi has pushed south of Madagascar, and it will quickly become nontropical due to baroclinic forcing. Redevelopment is not forecast.

95S. INVEST and its associated convection is persisting between 60ºE/80ºE and 05ºS. Upper level winds may become more favorable for tropical cyclone development in a few days. 95S is no immediate threat to land.

93B. INVEST is disorganized and will likely dissipate within 72 hours.

The remainder of the tropics is quiet.

28 January 2005 - 01:00 UTC

RSMC La Reunion has decided to upgrade a tropical disturbance in the Mozambique Channel. The disturbance is now being classified as Tropical Storm Felapi with winds of 35 knots. Meanwhile, the JTWC has only increased the probability of development of the disturbance, which one can argue is a bit late. SSMI wind data reveals a well defined low level circulation with winds near 35 knots. Meteosat infrared satellite imagery clearly show excellent equatorward and poleward outflow channels with strong divergence aloft. The main issue concerning the intensity forecast is land interaction. Felapi is beginning to move inland at this time. As a result, no strengthening is forecast in the short term. Notice how only the short term is mentioned. NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFS/NOGAPS are in strong agreement with the development of a midlevel ridge in southeast Africa in 48-72 hours. This ridge could change the steering pattern around the tropical cyclone and force the storm back into the Mozambique Channel. In fact, a change in direction back to the west would almost gurantee a threat to Mozambiue from Beira northward. But for the time being, heavy rainfall in central and southern Madagascar should be anticipated.

25 January 2005 - 23:45 UTC

While residents in southern Madagascar are recovering from the mess caused by TC Ernest, we may have to begin monitoring the Mozambique Channel for yet another shot at tropical cyclone development. Unfortunately, satellite imagery for the Indian Ocean region has been limited over the last 24 hours, but the latest pic showed what appears to be a surface trough over Mozambique, and extending eastward into the Mozambique Channel. There is a fair amount of divergence over the trough. What raised my attention was that the GFS, which has been forecasting TC development over the last few days, has been joined by the 12Z run of the ECMWF. Both models develop a significant TC over the Channel within 72 hours. If the NOGAPS happens to jump onboard, then i'd really become concerned. Early indications are that any TC that forms will eventually be drawn west into Mozambique. Hopefully nothing will come out of this trough.

There are no other organized areas of interest at this time.

23 January 2005 - 23:00 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Tim (13S) is dissipating quickly over the southeast Indian Ocean. Tim will not threaten any landmasses.

91S. INVEST is barely visible on satellite imagery. No development is forecast.

92P. INVEST has formed in the Coral Sea, just east of the Queensland coast. 92P originally formed from remnant moisture of a tropical disturbance that formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low level energy moved across QSLD and is now over open waters. Conditions are not favorable for development. Strong upper level winds are causing the disturbance to become elongated in an east/west orientation. The low should continue heading east in the general direction of New Caledonia.

INVEST 92A. has developed in the northern Indian Ocean, east of Somalia. 92A is not well organized due to strong upper level winds, but the overall structure of a developing tropical cyclone is evident. However, tropical cyclone development is not expected in the short term, and any organization would likely take several days. The NOGAPS model is the only model forecasting development in the medium range, with the TC having a southerly component thereafter.

22 January 2004 - 02:00 UTC

Latest meteosat imagery shows some signs that Ernest may have wobbled slightly to the east. The general forecast will not change, but any decrease in distance from land does cause additional concern. Keep in mind that a more easterly track would also decrease the amount of time allowed for preparation near areas like Toliara, which in the worst case scenario would be affected within 12-24 hours. Residents living in Morombe and southward should still be keeping a very close eye on the storm until the threat passes completelt. Fortunately, Ernest is approaching an upper level trough, which is visible on water vapor imagery. The trough should help to put a limit on the intensity cyclone. Further strengthening is no longer expected.

22 January 2005 - 01:00 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) has intensified more than anticipated. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 knots, and they are expected to increase slightly over the next 24 hours. Once Ernest begins to approach the southwest tip of Madagascar, an upper trough will cause some shearing , and the cyclone will weaken with winds decreasing to around 85 knots. The model consensus is very strong, and there is hardly any disagreement. The JTWC track is in agreement with the strong consensus. However, Ernest will affect SW Madagascar to say the least, and a direct hit is not out of the question this far out. Ernest will be closest to land in approximately 36 hours.

98P. INVEST is struggling due to land interaction. 98P has shown little signs of movement, and until the low moves open waters the potential for development will be low. The global models are not nearly as bullish as they have been, and the structure of the system is no longer impressive. Therefore, development is not expected within the short term.

99S. INVEST has shown no signs of development. Conditions are only marginally favorable for intensification, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected at this time.

91B. INVEST is in bad shape. Outflow boundaries have been revealed by satellite imagery, which is not a good indication of strong surface convergence. Without low level convergence tropical cyclone development will not occur. Tropical development is not expected at this time.

20 January 2005 - 23:00 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Ernest (12S) has been classified by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is my thinking that Ernest was probably a tropical cyclone for at least 24 hours. 85GHz imagery showed a well-defined eye earlier today, and scatterometer data has shown winds at least 35-40 knots the last 24 hours. Fortunately, Ernest has been upgraded, and the official maximum sustained winds are being set at 65 knots. Multispectral imagery and Dvorak estimates do indicate that winds may be slighty higher, however.

The forecast track remains tricky. The last discussion noted that the global models were not initializing the intensity of former INVEST 98P. well, which resulted in poor model guidance. Both NOGAPS and ECMWF progged only low level moisture to move along the eastern coast of Madagascar. It turns out that Ernest is a developing tropical cyclone in the Mozambique Channel. The latest model solutions are more believable due to better initialization. The JTWC has decided to go along with the model consensus, which shows a general path through the Mozambique Channel and into southwest Madagascar in 48-72 hours. Ernest has been moving more southerly over the last 24 hours, and it is the beginning of the more poleward movement that was forecast in the previous discussion. There is no reason to disagree with the latest JTWC track. However, one must be reminded that tropical cyclones are highly unpredictable, and any slight deviation in the overall heading of the TC will raise the potential of a landfall near Nampula, Mozambique or Besalampy, Madagascar. The medium range forecast by the JTWC is a general track towards southern Madagascar, south of Toliara, but I would not be so surprised to see a slightly more easterly track closer to Morombe. Please remember to rely on official information over these discussions if you are living in an area that could be threatened by this dangerous tropical cyclone.

The intensity forecast will depend highly on the cyclone's proximity to land. Upper level winds are favorable for development due to strong upper level ridging. Sea surface temperatures are 28º-33ºC. Ernest may peak with winds ranging between 75-80 knots, and come onshore with winds of 65-70 knots if the general forecast track verifies.

98P. INVEST, located in the Gulf of Carpentaria, has shown signs of organization within the last 24 hours. Upper level winds and sea surface temperatures are favorable for intensification. Land interaction is hindering development more than any other parameter at this time. It is fairly likely that 98P will become centered over open waters just enough to develop further, and be upgraded within the next couple days. It is recommended that residents continue to monitor the updates posted by the Bureau of Meteorology and Joint Typhoon Warning Center as 98P poses a threat to all areas surrounding the Gulf. The forecast track is hightly unpredictable given the current amount of poor model data.

18 January 2005 - 22:45 UTC

The final advisory on Tropical Storm Kulap (01W) has been posted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Kulap is in the process of becoming nontropical as it recurves away from all landmasses.

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 97S. INVEST, located northeast of Madagascar. The low pressure area has been organizing fairly well over the last 24 hours. Scatterometer wind imagery clearly shows a well definied surface circulation with winds exceeding 30 knots. 97S will likely be upgraded within the next 12 hours. Upper level winds are favorable for slow development, especially if the low center continues to move westward. The limited amount of model guidance is poor. NOGAPS and the GFS are not initializing the low, and they are being disgarded for this discussion. However, they are being mentioned because they do show low level moisture moving southward along the eastern coast of Madgascar. On the contrary, 97S has been moving relatively westward at a decent clip. It is our thinking that 97S will skirt Antsiranana before taking on a more poleward motion. the surface circulation could come onshore between Besalampy and Antsiranana, Madagascar within 72 hours. It should be noted that the Bazaruto Islands northward to Nampula, Mozambique are not in the clear either. Peak intensity is forecast be 40-50 knots.

Due to strong upper level ridging, Tropical Cyclone 11S has the potential to reach the Mauritius and possibly even the eastern coast of Madgascar. The cyclone is moving west-southwest, and is approaching an upper level trough. Interaction with the trough would cause weakening relatively quickly. However, global model data suggests that an upper level ridge currently ventilating the cyclone will extend westward. TC 11S will likely maintain its intensity through the forecast period. The Mauritius could be impacted within 4-5 days.

Tropical Cyclone 10S is dissipating over the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean.



15 January 2004 - 03:15 UTC

Tropical Storm 01W is expected to impact Guam, Rota, and Saipan within the next 36 hours. The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center intensity forecast brings 01W up to minimal typhoon status as it passes over or just east of the islands. This forecast is straightforward since landfall is less than two days away and models are in general agreement. Once 01W clears the Marianas, an upper level trough will absorb the tropical cyclone, causing it to dissipate.

Tropical Cyclone 02B, located east-southeast of Sri Lanka is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 48-72 hours. Only slight intensification is expected at this time. It is too early to say whether or not 02B will affect Sri Lanka, which would likely happen 4-7 days ahead.

94S. INVEST, passing through the Timor Sea, still has a fair chance to develop into a weak tropical cyclone as it begins to move into the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean. 94S. is no threat to land.

96S. INVEST, located in the southern hemisphere and SW of Indonesia, is not well defined. 96S. consists of a linear cloud signature, and that is not indicative of tropical cyclone formation. Nevertheless, there is some potential for slow development over the next several days. 96S. is no threat to any landmasses.

11 January 2005 - 22:15 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Kerry (08P) is weakening fairly quickly as it approaches a 40-50 knot subtropical jet. Kerry will degenerate within 24-36 hours, but some remnant moisture could get pulled into southern Queensland in a few days.

94S. INVEST, located near the Top End, is moving westward into the Timor Sea. This area will have to be watched carefully over the next several days. Upper level winds are favorable for development, and several models form a tropical cyclone. Early indications are that any TC would continue to head westward and away from Western Australia. However, a continued westerly movement is still far from a sure bet.

The northeast portion of the Indian Ocean is once again being monitored for tropical cyclone formation. A broad area of low pressure located near -90ºE 05ºN is located in an area that is marginally favorable for development. However, there are no signs of organization and upper level winds do need to relax a bit. The potential for development is fairly low, but the broad low will be watched closely.

The global models have hinted at the development of a low pressure system in the western Pacific for a week. There are no signs of development at this time, but a large cluster of scattered thunderstorms between 140ºE-160ºE would be the origin of the progged tropical cyclone.

11 January 2005 - 04:15 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Kerry (08P) is beginning to drift southward along an upper level weakness. The same upper level trough will act to weaken Kerry due to strong upper level winds, and there is now a good probability that Kerry will NOT reach Queensland. Several of the global models underestimated the strong shear that is now beginning to interact with the cyclone. Kerry will likely dissipate over open waters....with only a slight chance of the remant moisture of Kerry being pulled westward in the medium range.

Fortunately, Tropical Cyclone 01B weakened due to moderately strong wind shear. However, the threat of heavy thunderstorms and minor flooding has not diminished.

The next area that will be monitored for development is the Timor Sea. A broad area of low pressure is currently situated over the Top End of Australia. Several models bring this low westward over open waters. The likelyhood of tropical development in the medium range is fair.

We are also monitoring large clusters of convection in the western Pacific, which have recently been enhanced by the negative pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation. There are no organized areas of thunderstorm activity at this time, and none of the models are overly aggressive in forecasting TC formation.

08 January 2005 - 11:45 UTC

Wow....a lot to discuss....

Tropical Cyclone Kerry (08P), located in the Coral Sea, is developing into an extremely dangerous storm. Maximum sustained winds are 75 knots, and they are expected to increase through the short term. The upper level pattern is near perfect for further intensification. An upper level ridge is located to the east of the Tropical Cyclone, which is helping to enhance the poleward outflow channel. The excellent outflow channel is allowing the storm to ventilate. there is no upper level wind shear present, and sea surface temperatures are easily warm enough for intensification. I do not forsee weakening prior to landfall, and a landfall between Cooktown and Brisbane appears to be fairly likely. Some of the available models bring Kerry as far north as Princess Charlotte Bay, but the current heading of the cyclone makes that scenario less likely. Another scenario is recurvature prior to reaching Australia, but that option does not appear to be in the cards this time around. I am in general agreement with the ECMWF/NOGAPS path. However, lets keep in mind that a landfall could possibly be as far as 144 hours ahead, and a lot of this thinking may be a bit premature. the bottom line is to keep an eye on the TC if you are living along the coast of Queensland and northern New South Wales. It is too early to determine the potential intensity at landfall IF Kerry makes it that far west.

99B INVEST, located near Sri Lanka, has just required the issuance of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by the JTWC. I posted my fears about a tropical weather threat posed to Sri Lanka at Pro-Weather a week ago. Unfortunately, 99B has decided to intensify. The good news is that any intensification process will be very slow, and rapid intensification is not expected. The main parameter that is keeping a cap on 99B is moderate relative shear. The relative easterly shear probably will not be enough to completely inhibit development. The GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF are in solid agreement with bringing the low pressure system into Sri Lanka within 72-144 hours....most likely as weak tropical cyclone with around 50-60 knot winds. However, heavy rainfall is by far the biggest concern. Daily rainfall in the region has been significant enough to cause massive flooding, and a slow moving Tropical Cyclone is the last thing residents and relief workers need to encounter. 99B has the potential to be a HUGE problem, and I hope officials are monitoring the situation very closely.

Tropical Cyclone Sally (09S) is no threat to land.

The possibility of development southwest of the Marshall Islands within five days is there. More will be posted on an upcoming monsoonal low over the coming days.

03 - January 2005 - 8:00 UTC

Tropical Cyclone Raymond (07S) is now inland and will slowly dissipate over northwest Australia within 36 hours.

99B.INVEST, located southeast of Sri Lanka, is not organizing at this time. However, model guidance continues to indicate that the potential for development still exists. Any low level circulation that does form may end up passing just south and eventually west of Sri Lanka over the next 96-120 hours, but forecast confidence is low that many days ahead. Even if a tropical cyclone does not form, the broad low pressure would still have to be monitored due to the threat of heavy rainfall.

97S.INVEST, located in the Mozambique Channel, has not changed much in terms of satellite signature over the last 24 hours. The general path of 97S will likely be southeast and over Madagascar. By the time the low enters the open waters of the southwest Indian Ocean it will likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics. No development is forecast.

It looks as if the SPAC Cyclone season may just be gearing up. The negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation will be passing through the southern Pacific and Oceana over the next week or so. The negative phase of the MJO has been known to enhance the probability of tropical cyclone formation. In addition, there are several areas of widespread convection near the Solomon Islands. The GFS and ECMWF are hinting at the development of a tropical cyclone over the Solomon Islands or in the Coral Sea in the medium range (4-7 days). Meanwhile, the UKMET and NOGAPS have yet to show significant development, but the NOGAPS is picking up on a low pressure area entering the Coral Sea by 144 hours. This region will be very interesting to monitor over the next several days, especially if model runs verify.

The approaching -MJO will also increase the possibility of tropical development near the Marshall Islands in the medium range. The GFS and NOGAPS are hinting on the development of a monsoonal low just north of the equator, similar to the picture being painted for the Coral Sea area. Development is not expected at this time, but consistent model runs and signs of low formation could change things a bit.

02 January 2004 - 4:10 UTC

Due to center relocation, the path of Tropical Cyclone 07S has shifted eastward. A strong upper level ridge has been located over central Australia. The ridge acted to enhance westerly outflow of the TC, but easterly winds aloft became a bit too strong and began to seperate the low level circulation from the organized convection. The surface circulation began drifting northeast for a brief period of time. Since then, upper winds have become slightly more favorable and signs of organization are apparent. Therefore, a slight increase in strength and a landfall between Broome and Joseph Bonaparte Gulf within 36 hours. An increasingly poleward motion is expected thereafter, and the TC is expected to dissipate over land.

96S.INVEST remains stalled over northern Australia and tropical development is not anticipated.

97S.INVEST, nearly stationary in the Mozambique Channel, has shown no signs of development. The broad low pressure area extends from the channel, across Madagascar and into the southwest Indian Ocean. Land interaction and only marginal upper level winds should prevent the formation of a significant tropical cyclone. However, heavy rainfall is possible over the next week or so as the low skirts the coast. 97S will continue to be monitored for signs of TC formation.

99B.INVEST has formed southeast of Sri Lanka, west of Indonesia. Latest satellite imagery reveals that 99B is fairly disorganized, and immediate tropical development is not expected. The low is situated between a strong subtrropical ridge to the northeast and an approaching upper level trough to the west. Upper level southwesterly winds ranging between 30-40 knots ahead of the trough should continue to keep the low rather weak. However, this system must be monitored closely due to the dire situation in SE Asia. Daily thunderstorms in Sri Lanka have recently caused flooding without a TC even being in the area.

90L.INVEST, located in the southern Atlantic, seems to have weakened over the last 24 hours. Satellite imagery no longer shows any signs of a mid to low level circulation and cold cloud tops. The broad area of low pressure has been absorbed by a larger nontropical weather system. Tropical development is no longer possible.

31 December 2004 - 4:00 UTC

INVEST 95S has strengthened into Tropical Cyclone 07S based on official information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 knots (65 kilometers) and the JTWC is expecting those winds to increase to 50 knots (93 kilometers) within 72 hours. CIMSS Winds & Analysis reveal a fair amount of diffluence aloft, and conditions are moderately favorable for further intensification. Unfortunately, the available global model guidance was not initialized well, and the models are barely detecting the tropical cyclone. So, models are not much in the way of use in terms of forecast intensity and track. With that being said, Tropical Cyclone 07S has been tracking southwest at 215º, and a more southerly curve is anticipated within a few days. The forecast is a difficult one, but 07S is expected to come onshore between North West Cape and Broome with Port Hedland being one of the more likely points of landfall for the time being. Estimated time of arrival is 4-6 days.

INVEST 96S remains nearly stationary over the Northern Territory. There is a slight chance that the broad low could drift further west and have a better chance of development in the medium range. However, due to proximity to land eventually Tropical Cyclone 07S, tropical development does not appear too likely at this time. Both 96S and 07S may end up merging into one broad monsoon low over northwest Australia by the medium range.

Convection has increased over the Mozambique Channel over the last 24 hours. The witnessed convective development may be the first stages of low pressure formation that several of the global models had progged over the last 36 hours. the potential for tropical cyclone development in either the Mozambique Channel or southwest Indian Ocean within 3-7 days still exists. Residents living around this region are advised to continue monitoring weather forecasts over the next week or so.

The current lull in tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific is expected to continue through the next six days.

Ironically, less than one year before Hurricane Aldonca/Catarina formed in the southern Atlantic, INVEST 90L has been issued generally for the same location. There is not much to the weak low, and development is hightly unlikely. Sea surface temperatures are in the 60s, the low can barely be detected on satellite imagery, and of course this area is not climatalogically favored.

30 December 2004 - 21:00 UTC

INVEST 96S has developed in the Arafura Sea just north of the Northern Territory while INVEST 95S formed in the Timor Sea to the northwest of Western Australia. Both disturbances are fairly well organized, but proximity to land will limit development. 95S has a slightly greater distance away from land. Therefore, 95S does have some potential to become a weak tropical cyclone just prior to landfall. The low pressure systems will likely hug the coast over the next three to four days. In the medium range, the lows will likely be drawn inland.

Elsewhere, the tropics are in a lull. It should be noted that some of the medium range model guidance is hinting at the development of a tropical cyclone on either side of Madagascar, however. But for now, there are no signs of tropical development in the southwest Indian Ocean or the Mozambique Channel, and more consistent model runs would be needed to call for development.

19 December 2004 - 18:00 UTC

Tropical Storm Noru (32W) is passing through the northern Mariana Islands at this time. Sustained winds are 40 knots but satellite imagery shows that Noru may be slowly strengthening. Luckily, Noru will clear Asuncion in 36-48 hours before becoming extratropical in 48-72 hours as an upper trough recurves the TC NE.

Tropical Storm Talas (31W) has dissipated and only a low level swirl remains on satellite imagery. This will be the last update on Talas.

An interesting setup is taking shape in the eastern Indian Ocean. INVEST 98B, located west of Jakarta, is located just north of the equator. Meanwhile, INVEST 93S has been issued for a disturbance south of the equator and 98B. One of the systems will likely absorb the available energy from the other before developing into a classified tropical cyclone. Any TC that develops in this area will likely move into the southcentral Indian Ocean as a significant TC by the medium range.

INVEST 92B is also sliding south of the equator in the Indian Ocean. 92B has shown no signs of organization and the models are not aggressive. However, the broad low will continue to be monitored for development.

18 December 2004 - 23:00 UTC

Tropical Storm Noru (32W) is less than 36 hours from hitting the northern Mariana Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Saipan and a Tropical Storm Watch is up for Rota. Noru has a fairly impressive signature and further slow strenghtening is expected. Noru will likely hit Saipan with sustained winds as high as 50 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. Residents should also be preparing for some flooding in low lying areas due to the forecast of 6-8 inches of rainfall associated with Noru. Guam Radar is beginning to show the outer rainbands of the storm as it approaches. There is a high level of confidence in terms of the track of Noru over the next 72 hours. An upper level trough will weaken the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, which is currently keeping Noru on a westerly course. Model spread is rather low, and it is highly probable that Noru will curve north and eventually NNE over or just west of the island chain. All islands from Saipan through Maug Island. should expect tropical storm force winds within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Talas (31W) is becoming extratropical and will dissipate within 24 hours. Talas is no threat to any landmasses

INVEST 93S has formed west-northwest of Jakarta, Indonesia. This is the same disturbance that was mentioned in the previous IWIC discussion. The global models continue to develop 93S, and the likely hood of tropical cyclone classification within 72 hours is good. 93S will continue to move southwest into the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean through the next six days, and no threat to land is expected through the medium range.

INVEST 92S, located also located in the southern Indian Ocean and just south of the equator, is showing no signs of organization at this time. However, there is a chance for slow intensification over the next several days.

17 December 2004 - 23:15 UTC

Tropical Storm 31W (Talas) is still wobbling around near 132ºE. Talas is now moving towards the north at a meager 4 knots. An upper level trough, which is currently shearing the tropical cyclone with strong southerly winds in the upper levels, will allow Talas to become extratropical within 48 hours. Luckily, Talas will not threaten any landmasses as a tropical cyclone, but some of the global models take some of the remnant moisture associated with the system into the Philippines in the medium range.

As was first forecast by IWIC, the broad monsoon low originally located near 160ºE has intensified into a Tropical Depression 32W. The threat of 32W to the northern Mariana Islands was also noted. Sure enough the Joint Typhoon Warning Center now expects 32W to strengthen into a minimal Tropical Storm as it passes through the island chain. I see no reason to doubt this forecast, and I will hold onto my initial thoughts on the system.

An area of disturbed weather southwest of Singapore (east Indian Ocean S of equtor) has the potential to become the next INVEST of the southern hemisphere. Models are in fair agreement that a tropical cyclone will come out of this broad low. The developing tropical cyclone will drift southwest into the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean and away from land.

INVEST 97B, now located southwest of Sri Lanka, is no longer expected to continue moving westward into the central Arabian Sea. Moreover, we now anticipate more of a southerly movement. In fact, there is a possibility that the low may become entangled with the disturbed area of weather that is currently west of Indonesia. No development is expected at this time, but that could change over the coming days.

14 December 2004 - 00:45 UTC

Tropical Storm 31W (Talas) remains disorganized. Easterly winds aloft continue to make Talas a one-sided tropical cyclone with nearly all convection being displaced to the west of the surface circulation. By the time these easterly winds relax, a strong southwest flow out ahead of an upper level trough to the west will keep winds unfavorable for further development. Conditions may temporarily become condusive before southwest winds increase, but any increase in strength would be modest at best.

Several models show a more poleward curve near 135ºE. However, the lastest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF appear to have trended with a more westerly solution. First of all, let me say that if Talas were to reach as far west as the northern Philippines, it will likely move inland as a downgraded broad area of low pressure. While this scenario is unlikely, the potential for it to happen has gone up slightly over the last 24 hours. The poleward solution, which is still the most likely scenario, would allow for recurvature near the Ryukyu Islands as a weakening tropical cyclone beginning to acquire extratropical characteristics. More importantly, Talas does not appear to be a significant threat to any landmasses.

The global models have hinted at the development of a tropical cylone from a broad monsoon low currently near 165ºE for the last several runs now. I fully expect this low to be the next INVEST 32W at least. The low pressure area will be in the general vicinity of the Mariana Islands in 5-7 days.

INVEST 97P has not changed significantly over the last 24 hours. the potential for some development over the next 24 hours still exists. However, none of the available model guidance is forecasting significant development. The low pressure area is still forecast to pass just west and eventually south of Fiji.

The area of disturbed weather near southern India is no longer an area of interest.

13 December 2004 - 02:01 UTC

INVEST 97P, located east of Port Vila, is beginning to show signs of organization and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. QuikSCAT data reveals that sustained winds may already be as high as 35-40 knots. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for slow development. The tropical disturbance will likely be upgraded within 24 hours. The available global models do not show much in the way of intensification, but they do not appear to be initialized well. Forecast confidence is low. However, the disturbance is anticipated to peak with 40-45 knot winds as it travels in a general south-southeast motion passing juest west and eventually south of Fiji. The island should prepare for tropical storm force winds.

Tropical Storm 31W has not shown any significant improvements in terms of satellite structure. Easterly shear is still forcing most thunderstorm activity to the west of the low level circulation (see images from earlier today on main page). Once 31W passes to the west of a strong mid level ridge, upper level winds will temporarily relax and winds will likely increase to approx. 55-60 knot winds. The JTWC is still calling for Talas to reach minimal Typhoon status, but I am becoming more pessimistic with time. Talas will once again unfavorable winds aloft out ahead of a strong upper level trough, which will position itself west of the high pressure area.

Talas will easily pass just to the south of Guam over the next 24 hours, but there is a high level of uncertainty concering the forecast track in the medium range. The majority of forecast models curve Talas on a more poleward motion while a few (ie. the NOGAPS) like more more of a westerly motion in the general direction of the northern Philippines. Due to the level of uncertainty, residents of the Ruyukyu Islands and the northern Philippines are advised to keep a close watch on the system as it continues on a general west-northwest heading.

The tropical disturbance located near Sri Lanka is poorly organized and tropical development is highly unlikely over the next few days.

A large monsoon low located near 170ºE has the potential to slowly organize over the next several days. Residents of the Marianas should monitor the low over the next week or so.

12 December 2004 - 09:45 UTC

Tropical Storm 31W (Talas) is moving westward around a mid level ridge of high pressure. Based on the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, 31W will pass just south of the island of Guam as a moderate tropical storm by late Monday. All model guidance is in relatively good agreement and I see no reason to disagree with the JTWC track. Talas will remain southwest of the ridge, which should allow atmospheric conditions to remain favorable for slow development. There is a 50/50 chance of Talas acquiring Typhoon status within the next 72 hours. There is some uncertainty concerning the forecast track in the medium range, but increasing shear ahead of a strong upper level trough will likely weaken 31W significantly before it poses a threat to any other landmasses.

The GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF indicate that there is some potential for tropical cyclone formation in the western Pacific near 160ºE in 4-6 days.

INVEST 96B located just southeast of Sri Lanka is showing no signs of strengthening. Model guidance indicates that the broad area of low pressure will move westward into the southern Arabian Sea. Development is not expected at this time, but some development once in the open waters of the Arabian Sea cannot be ruled out.

11 November 2004

The area of disturbed weather in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea has not become better organized within the last 48 hours. Upper level winds remain marginal at best and the few global models that did develop a strong low pressure system in the medium range are no longer aggressive. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected.

09 November 2004

A broad low in the central Caribbean has become slightly better defined this afternoon. Conditions are not prime for development, but the upper level trough dominating the region's weather will help ventilation. There are no signs of a surface circulation, but development within 96Hrs cannot be ruled out. The building surface ridge in the western Atlantic will force a good portion of the heaviest rainfall east of Hispaniola. However, the Dominican Republic can expect to see current weather conditions persist through the next 36 hours. Puerto Rico and the VIs can anticipate heavy rainfall with a good possibility of flooding over the next couple days. If development were to occur, the system would likely be either subtropical or nontropical in nature. The broad low pressure area is reminiscent of Tropical Storm Matthew that formed in the Gulf of Mexico less than a month ago...only without a surface circulation.

08 November 2004

No need to worry about the lack of updates...work on the 2005 seasonal hurricane forecast is now in progress, minor changes to the site are being made, and the lack of any tropical activity are the main reasons why there haven't been any daily discussions in recent weeks. Updates will be posted if there are any signs of tropical development.

PM 09 October 2004

No changes from the previous discussion. The afternoon reconnaissance flight went into TD14 and found minimal TS force winds underneath the busrt of convection to the east of the center, and the system was upgraded back to TS status as of 5PM EDT. This is the same exact occurence that we observed yesterday afternoon. Convection developed just east of the center as recon entered the storm, and it was upgraded. Six hours later all of the convection collapsed and was sheared northeadt. Southwest winds are only going to increase over the next 12-24 hours, and a temporary lull in convection could really do a number on the circulation. I'd still be very surprised if Matthew makes landfall as a classified Tropical Storm. Again, the difference is trivial....heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms are the main concern.

AM 09 October 2004

For those that have been reading our daily discussions over the last several days, it should be no surprise that Tropical Storm Matthew is struggling to survive. Yesterday afternoon, it was argued that the thought of classification could still be open for debate. Reconnaissance aircraft happened to reach the surface circulation the same time thunderstorm activity in the northeast quadrant was strongest. Recon found TS force winds within one of the squalls and the TPC decided to classify the low at 5PM EDT. Convection never fully managed to completely wrap around the center, and the circulation has been exposed ever since it developed a couple days ago. In addition, there was some speculation that the low was not even fully tropical. Matthew continues to lack any resemblence of a true tropical cyclone, and it is highly asymmetric. Even the TPC noted this morning how pathetic the storm's presentation is on satellite imagery. A six hour burst in convection to the northeast of an exposed surface circulation followed by rapid dissipation does not warrant classification in my opinion.....lol. I know I may sound rather finical, but the idea of using a name for a burst in convection that was going to likely end up being temporary due to strong shear simply doesn't fit well with me, and I am aware of classification guidelines.

A track towards TX/LA was the call all week, and we finally managed to narrow it down to Louisiana. Yesterday, we explained that if our northerly track (compared to the TPC forecast) were to verify, then the storm would have a very difficult time remaining intact. The possibility of dissipation within 12-24 hours was also noted. Satellite imagery this morning clearly shows that the easterly jog has come to an end, and the LLC is almost moving due north. The only reason for the easterly jog yesterday was the LLC had to "chase" down some of the thunderstorm activity that was being sheared to the east in order to survive. All of the reliable model data suggested that the northerly movement would resume, and even the mean low level steering flow was indicative of a northerly track. Matthew will have to contend with increasing southwest winds up until landfall, and there is a fair chance that the system may not even be a Tropical Depression by then. However, it would not be surprising if the TPC were to continue issuing advisories so that the public does not have any false sense of security. Matthew certainly is not a wind event, but rainfall has been the main concern from the beginning. Most of southeast Louisiana is below sea level, and Terrebonne Parish is under a state of emergency due to flooding in that area. Areas just south of Houma have recieved in upwards of 10 inches of rainfall and 2-4 additional inches of rainfall should be expected. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible.

08 October 2004

It did not take long for convection to develop close enough to the surface circulation once upper level winds weakened slightly for some intensification to take place. The large cloud canopy that has been present the last several days was enough to diminish the effects of the southwest winds, hence some intensification. More importantly, the surface circulation has had to "chase" after the convection to the east, which resulted in more of an eastward motion. The current movement would allow Matthew to go with the flow, meaning less in the way of relative wind shear. I do not like to make excuses, but this is not a significant bust. First of all, sustained winds were 20-25MPH yesterday, and recon is now finding minimal tropical storm force winds this afternoon. The difference is trivial, and at this current intensity winds will remain insignificant. In addition, one could argue that the convection bursts to the northeast of the half exposed LLC are sporadic. One thing for certain is Matthew lacks everything that would resemble the well known asymmetric shape of well defined tropical cyclones. It is very common for unclassified tropical disturbances to contain TD and even TS force winds within squalls that extend a far distance from the actual low pressure center. I would have been a little hesitant in calling the low a TS considering that i'm not quite sure how long intense convection will persist near the center, especially if the easterly motion is turns out to be a jog....more on that later.

The intensity forecast is a work in progress. If the low center were to continue on the northerly heading that was observed yesterday for 36-48 additional hours, then southwest winds would have certainly been enough to prevent intensification, and we would not be dealing with a classifed TS at the present time. That was the original thinking. The global model consensus was in general agreement and even the current low level steering flow would still suggest that the storm should be heading more northerly. The problem arose within the last 6-12 hours when deepening convection east of the center pulled the entire low eastward. The GFS was the only global model that indicated a potential Florida threat, and that affected the tropical model consensus. Due to it's model bias throughout the season, it is still reasonable to suggest that the model was simply underestimating the strength of the subtropical ridge. So that leaves us with both an intensity and track forecast dillema. The 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET did not trend east. Even the 18Z NOGAPS run surprisingly remained consistent with previous model runs. The 18Z GFS, which is coming out as a type this discussion, is indicating that the center will move as far north as southeast Louisiana. It has always been my belief that nowcasting should be given more weight before putting much faith in a model consensus that goes against current trends, but the current steering flow in addition to a strong global model consensus is hard to ignore. The more northerly heading that the models are trying to reinstitute would allow Matthew to once again become more susceptible to strong southwest winds ahead of the mid level trough. On the other hand, all members of the tropical model suite are in complete agreement with a Florida threat. However, i've hammered this all season and I while say it again.....the tropical models do not perform well once outside of the deep tropics. The global models can pick up the nontropical features across the US that will be the main steering factors much easier than the tropical models.

If the TPC forecast track is correct, then Matthew will likely be a threat to the Florida panhandle. Maximum intensity under these conditions is probably around 60MPH. But I am sticking with my original thinking for the time being. The easterly motion was probably a jog, and a more northerly track should resume. As I have already stated, a more northerly track will correlate with increasingly hostile atmospheric conditions. The only way further strenghtening would occur is if we're dealing with a subtropical or nontropical low. This is why I would be a little more hesitant on calling this disorganized broad low pressure area a tropical storm. If the TPC is correct on calling the low tropical, then Matthew will dissipate within 12-24 hours if the northerly track resumes.

I don't think it is fair to say that I should be eating crow already, but I will be if the thinking from the Tropical Prediction Center turns out being accurate. We should know a lot more within the next 24 hours. Don't forget about the disclaimer.

07 October 2004

Reconnaissance aircraft investigated a surface low that formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico within the last 24 hours. Recon found maximum sustained winds near 20-25MPH and 1007MB pressure. Initial pressure readings were estimates, and the latest recon observation should not be recognized as a definite trend. Daylight visible and infrared satellite imagery reveal that a low level circulation is displaced to the south and west of nearly all thunderstorm activity.

The southwest shear that has been mentioned over the last several days is continuing to hinder development, and upper level conditions are not expected to become much better. A mid level trough diving southward into the southern plains will enforce 30-60 knot shear levels near the northwest Gulf. Due to the disorganized satellite signature and lack of favorable winds aloft tropical development still seems unlikely.

Some model guidance suggests that further development will occur. However, most of these models can be discounted. For example, the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast Scheme (SHIPS), strengthens the low up to 44 knots just prior to landfall. The problem with SHIPS is that the low has to be initialized as a minimal Tropical Depression. Second, the model only has a historical sample of named storms. The GFDL is the most aggressive model by developing the surface circulation into a Category 2, but that is not much of a surpise either. It has been proven that the GFDL has little to no forecast intensity skill. The Canadian and GFS are the only two models that can be given some weight, but only two global models is not much of a consensus. Furthermore, the GFS and CMC have not shown much in the way of significant development to begin with. The UKMET has been a bit inconsistent while NOGAPS and ECMWF have been "quiet".

Some credit has been given to the GFS model, which ironically has been one of the worst perfoming global models this season. The GFS has shown its flaws over recent days by bringing the low east towards Florida. The global consensus is a track into the Louisiana coast moving northeast,then followed by a more northerly track towards a weakness in the central US. The GFS has had an easterly bias all season, and that has affected the tropical model suite, which relies on data from the GFS. If the GFS were in more agreement with the other global models, the tropical model conensus would be more northerly.

In summary, the potential for development is remains on the low side. Southwest winds are already having a noticeable effect, and it only gets worse closer the Gulf Coast. The only reason why the slim chance of development exists is because upper level winds could always relax for a short amount of time, and convection would easily wrap around the LLC, but that is not expected. If the low posed any significant wind threat, then i'd be a lot more cautious. But even if the low managed to become a weak subtropical TD or TS, rain would still be the main issue. This is a rain event. Areas along the western and central Gulf Coast could easily pick up 4-6" with isolated areas exceeding those amounts. If development were to occur it would have to happen within the next 12-18 hours.

06 October 2004

Limited amount of time this evening so the discussion will have to be short....there has been a flareup in convection in the SW GOM, but it can be attributed partially to southwest shear. There have been signs of an LLC developing, but satellite imagery also shows convection being displaced to the north and east. Chances for development still appear slight, and a pure tropical cyclone is even more unlikely. The CMC and GFS were the two models that progged surface low development. The 12Z CMC did not show a low as strong as previously forecast. The GFS is most bullish and slightly east of all model guidance. The UK trend is similar to that of the CMC. The low should move generally NE towards LA.

05 October 2004

The focus remains on the tropical disturbance that has finally moved into the western Gulf of Mexico. Let me start off by saying that there is a slight chance of classification just prior to landfall, but it sure is getting a very high amount of attention considering that there are no signs of development. In Saturday's discussion we noted that development would not be very likely once the disturbance moves northwest in the Gulf due to increasing levels of vertical shear ahead of a trough over the Gulf Coast states. CIMSS shear values are 30-40 knots in the southwest Gulf and 50-60 knots along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical development under these conditions is not possible, and that is why we're seeing no organization.

The GFS, CMC, and UKMET are hinting at the development of a surface low in 60-72Hr, albeit very weak. The NOGAPS and ECMWF show no indication of TC formation. With highly unfavorable winds aloft, no signs of organization, and little to no model support of significant development, one would be going out on a limb if development were forecast. The worst case scenario is a hybrid tropical storm forming within 24Hrs of landfall. Heavy rainfall was and still is the concern regardless of classification. This is not a wind event. Any low center that does form could move inland anywhere between central Texas and southeast Louisiana. The GFS attempts to keep a low just south of the Louisiana coast after curving more easterly, but that's no surprise given its seasonal performance.

02 October 2004

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea is not expected to develop. Winds remain unfavorable for organization and the few global models that were hinting on development on either side of the Yucatan Peninsula in the medium range have backed off. The low level steering flow should push the disturbance into the western Gulf of Mexico within the next few days. A cold front pushing south towards the northern Gulf will stall on Wednesday. The front will keep any tropical moisture south of 25ºN until a ridge over the central US pushes into the northeast. In 120-144Hrs, moisture associated with the disturbance should be near the Texast coast. The GFS and Canadian want to develop a low at the surface, but there is no other model support at this time. But heavy rainfall will be the main issue with or without tropical development. An approaching mid level trough coming out of western Texas will increase southwest winds, which will allow for most of the heavy rains to be displaced to the northeast of the low center. If the low center were to develop a bit further west, then southern Texas could experience enough rainfall for flood watches to be issued, but that is still in question. But one thing that does seem fairly likely, is that all of the energy associated with this system will be drawn north or northeast in 5-7 days towards Texas and Louisiana.

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