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May 10 2005 - 07:00 UTC

I see significant problems on the horizon for either Taiwan or China. First, Chanchu is slowly organizing. The process has been very slow due to moderate easterly shear, but convection developing over the center is beginning to consistently remain near the center now. Chanchu is moving into a region of less shear. Take a look at the latest CIMSS wind shear map. The favorable ridge was not aligned properly for rapid intensification. It was north of the cyclone, resulting in the easterly shear. Now, the cyclone is beginning to move under the ridge. Furthermore, look what is beyond the ridge to the west. There is a strong upper level trough over mainland China, the ridge centered just east of Manila, and a large jet entrance region enveloping the entire South China Sea. If this setup is maintained over the next 3-5 days (and it's forecast to) then look for rapid intensification over the SCS. Land interaction with the Philippines will weaken the cyclone some, but not enough. Meanwhile, the intensity models are becoming more bullish. They are not handling land interaction well but nevertheless they are trending upward. Nearly all of them were initialized when Chanchu was still at 40-45 knots, BUT they still take the storm up to 100+ knots within only 72 hours. The 00Z NOGAPS is also trending stronger in the SCS.

December 24 2005 - 23:45 UTC

Tropical Cyclone 04S continues to move southwest in the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean. Modest strengthening is possible over the next few days as upper level winds have become marginally favorable enough to support a minimal tropical storm. TC04S is no threat to land.

Global models still want to develop a minimal tropical storm in the South China Sea. A consolidating area of convection or a well defined surface circulation remains to be seen. But this area will continue to be watch over the next few days.

December 23 2005 - 21:00 UTC

The two tropical disturbances in the southern Indian Ocean have changed little in organization over the last 24 hours. Conditions needed for development will continue to deteriorate as both systems continue heading southwest.

The disorganized area of convection east of and over the Philippines may begin to organize once over the open waters of the South China Sea. The ECMWF model has jumped onboard with the NOGAPS and GFS, all three showing development by three to six days.

December 22 2005 - 23:00 UTC There are two tropical systems below cyclone intensity in the southern Indian Ocean. One system is located near 10S/90E and the other more impressive one is near 15S/100E. Both systems are within the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northwest Australia. The low near 100E is better organized because it is closer to the ridge that is responsible for ventilating both entities. For the next 24 hours, conditions will be marginally favorable for development. But mid to upper level steering winds will enforce a southwest movement of both low pressure areas. Conditions are less favorable in the mid-latitudes, and little to no development will occur. The global NOGAPS model did not initialize one of the two tropical systems, so the model was not used in this forecast. The GFS accurately depicts both systems. The model shows the two merging as they travel southwest before dissipation in three to six days.

A tropical low southeast of the Philippines will be monitored as it continues westward toward the South China Sea. The low does have some of the earmarks of Tropical Storm 25w.

The remainder of the tropics are quiet. The Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific hurricane seasons are officially over. In the northern Indian Ocean, tropical cyclone 07b became a nonevent and advisories are no longer being issues by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.